As we enter the end game on Fay, you can see at left that the model forecasts, this one from this evening at 8 p.m., that there is little consensus as to where Fay is going to go. The more reliable models are those bunched to the right, which certainly is not good news for Tampa. The official NHC forecast is at right, but you can expect changes to it over the next 24 hours. It's a tough call. 
The P-3s are heading out on another cycle of 11 a.m. and 11 p.m. missions, ending up in New Orleans as our evacuation location. It's hard on the crew members as they have to leave their families behind to cope with the storm, but that's our lot in life.
The track for the first flight tomorrow is shown at the left. It's similar to the ones we flew out of Barbados, but there will be some added difficulty as we have to deal with the Cuban Government regarding clearance to fly in its airspace. We'll see how that goes. You see that the flight terminates in New Orleans.
And finally, the high-altitude jet, which has been flying
day and night for the last two days, will finish its set of missions tomorrow afternoon. It will be interesting to see what impact the dropsonde data these missions had on the forecasts. That will be determined after the season. The G-IV's final track is shown here.
Now it's time to wait. More later as we see where Fay goes and how strong she will be.
2 comments:
I read online that a new eyewall formed after Fay went ashore, actually gaining intensity as it moved overland. Are you therefore flying missions over Florida?
Strangely, I was going to ask you if you had permission to fly missions in Cuban airspace and if we share information with their civil defense folks. You answered the first, though it raised the question of whether they ever deny access to their airspace. Just curious.
I hope I don't barrage you with my questions. If so, just tell me to settle down! Thanks for the great info. Feel free to email me if you had rather by putting my first and last name together, omitting the middle initial, and sending it to google dot com.
Hershael -
Thanks for the questions. I'm here anytime to try to answer them.
Yes, we do fly overland, albeit at higher altitudes -14,000 ft and above, unless it is very low swamp land. Part of our flight was over the low-lying area of SW Florida on this mission, and we were flying at 12,000 ft. Not a problem.
We do request clearance to fly over Cuba, and although it may be granted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, we may be denied entry by the Cuban Air Traffic Control, as we were last Monday.
We currently have a request in for overflight clearance for Gustav, but as yet do not have such. We have a flight scheduled into the storm tomorrow afternoon from Tampa, and overflight permission would save us several hours of flight time. Hoping for a favorable outcome tomorrow, Wednesday.
Again, thanks for your questions. Wish you well in everything you do.
Jim
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