Blog Reading Suggestions

Some of you may be first time readers of my summer blog, so I thought I would explain the layout and how to get the best out of it.  First, let me say that his is the first blog I've ever done, and I'm still learning the technique in preparing each posting.  For instance, in my early postings I did not know how to embed pictures so that when you click on them they enlarge to almost full screen viewing.  Now, I've learned a few tricks, and like the picture at the right, you can click on it and it will enlarge.  That, incidentally, is a figure from the National Hurricane Center's website showing disturbed areas in the Atlantic basin and their probabilities of development as of 2:00 am this morning, 17 July.  Go ahead.  Click on it.  To return to the blog, simply hit the back button on your browser.

I have a total of 11 postings so far, the earliest being in May and this being the latest.  I encourage you to go back to the earlier blogs, oldest being on the bottom, to get a flavor of what we do here at the Aircraft Operations Center during the hurricane season.  To get to the earlier blogs, simply scroll down or go to the right pane and click on one of the months so see the blogs for that month.  If you click on "2008," you'll get all 11 of them from the latest at the top to the earliest at the bottom.

Hope you find this interesting and informative.

Is This the One?

We've been asking ourselves this question.  Is this the one?  Many of us who have been around think not since this system is so close to the S. American coast and because there is a good bit of shear in the atmosphere - that means winds at high altitudes that rip the tops on the growing thunderstorms and inhibit any development.  But, heck.  We've been wrong before.   

The two satellite images above were acquired today (click on them and use your back button to return to the blog).  The one to the left is a visible picture which is what you would see if you were in the Space Shuttle hurtling around the earth.  The second, to the right, is an IR (infrared) or thermal image which shows the cloud top temperatures - the more colorful, the colder and thus the higher the clouds.  As you can see, most of the "convection" - rapidly growing cumulonimbus clouds - are just to the west of the apparent center of circulation.  There really isn't much there, and that's one of the reasons many of us feel that this disturbance will not intensify into a tropical storm.  But, as my wife says, I'm no forecaster.

  

Well, we are scheduled to deploy to St. Croix in the Virgin Islands (that's to the east and a little south of Puerto Rico) to start flying into whatever is there beginning Friday afternoon at 4:00 pm with the first of our two WP-3D Lockheed Orions, returning at about 2:00 am, with the second P-3 leaving a 4:00 am Saturday morning and returning at 2:00 pm Saturday afternoon.  Crummy hours in my book, particularly since I have to see each aircraft off and meet it when it returns.  We may repeat this sequence two or three times, and after bouncing around the sky for about 10 hours a day, three days in a row, the crew is pretty well done in.  Even though we are on a lovely Caribbean island, there's not much enjoyment to be had.

The above shows the latest forecast track, taking the "storm" across the southern Caribbean.  We'll see how this changes tomorrow morning and whether the storm is forecast to intensify.  We'll have a final decision early in the morning as to whether we head SE to St. Croix or wait to fly another day.

That's enough for tonight.  Still have to pack, and I have an early morning (3:30) get up - go ahead and shed a tear or two to see one of the aircraft off to Jacksonville for some minor maintenance that has to be done at the Naval Air Station there.  If we go, I'll have much more to tell you in the coming days.  For now, Good Night.

Is this the Next Storm in the Atlantic

Bertha is gone - so it would seem.  Is what you see to the right - the bright spot near 9N and 40W - our next storm?  If so, its name will be Cristobal.  Please note that names alternate between English and Spanish, the following being Dolly followed by Eduoard.  Again, you can click on the pics to enlarge them.

The next diagram to the right shows the model forecasts made
this afternoon at 2:00 p.m.  Please notice that there are two distinct sets of tracks, one taking the storm into South America, and the other taking it to the WNW to the northern part of the islands.  The latter set of tracks are from the more reliable models which hurricane specialists tend to rely on more heavily.  We'll have to watch the development of this system over the next couple of days, and I shall get back to you on its likely path.

And So It Begins

And so it began.  The first true Atlantic storm of the 2008 season grew from a wave that emerged off of the east coast of Africa.  Bertha, by name, was a surprise to all of us as it grew from a tropical wave into a Category 3 storm.  There were two dilemmas that faced forecasters as they wrestled with a hurricane that formed  so early in the season in the eastern Atlantic. 

First, there was the rapid intensification of Bertha to Cat 3 - a fact that none of the forecasters predicted.  The second dilemma had to do with the track forecast.  These highly trained professionals rely to a large extent on computer model predictions as shown below for Bertha.  From that, they generate the "official" track shown to the right.  Earlier model runs showed Bertha curving to the north, but as time progressed, they continued to carry it in a more westerly direction, which began to get the attention of the public.

You can see from the picture of the model forecast tracks that there is some large disagreement among the dozen or so different models.  Why such a large difference?  Each model uses different parameters and different math to produce the tracks.  Hence, the difference in the outcome.  The forecasters usually rely on one or two models that they feel provides better guidance and then generate their own official track forecast.  Once again, it can be seen in the figure above and as the black line buried in among the model runs shown above.  (By the way, you may click on any of these figures to get an expanded look.  To go back to the blog, just hit your browser back button.)

Today, 11 July, BErtha is still with us as a weak Cat 1 storm located east of Bermuda.  It does not pose a threat to the U.S. mainland at this time but probably will have some impact on the island of Bermuda.  An interesting fact about Bertha is that it formed in the eastern Atlantic so early in the season.  Normally this does not occur until mid to late August.  The last time this happened was 2005, and we can all remember what occurred that year.  This is not a prediction, - just a fact to keep in mind.

Preparing for the Season

(click picture to enlarge, the your back button to return)

Here we are nearing the end of June, and save for the short-lived Tropical Storm Arthur, the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico have and continue to be quiet.  That's a good thing since we are not quite ready to tackle the heart of the season.

Preparing for our annual hurricane program takes a great deal of work by members of the AOC maintenance and engineering staffs because of a number of reasons.  First, gett

ing the planes physically ready to fly into the harsh environment of a hurricane means that we must perform maintenance to ensure that they are in tip-top condition.  Think of it like getting your car ready for a cross-country trip.  You need to put in a lot of time fixing, changing, tweaking and cleaning to be ready for the season.  

The two NOAA P-3s are over 30 years old, and while they have had the best of care over their lifetimes, they have aged and require more love and tender care than ever.  Comparing the engine of your car with that of the P-3, the latter is comprised of a jet engine connected to a propeller (hence the name turbo-prop) by a very complex gear box.  Lot's of things can go wrong with one of these engines, and each P-3 has four of them.  Above you can see a mechanic working on turbine section of one of these engines while another repairs an electrical de-icing boot on one of the propeller blades.  All of this work is done at the AOC facility located at MacDill AFB in Tampa, FL.  We are located in Hangar #5 on the base - the hangar shown in the movie Strategic Air Command (1955) featuring Jimmy Steward.

The Gulfstream G-IV has all of its maintenance work performed at the Gulfstream plant in Savannah, GA.  This high-performance jet with its sophisticated computers and electronics requires a higher level and extent of technical expertise and equipment than can be provided at

our base in Tampa.  Hence, every Spring, between winter programs and the hurricane season, it undergoes a one-month maintenance cycle in Savannah.  

Another reason for the flurry of activity at this time of year relates to the extensive instrumentation installations, modifications and upgrades that usually precede the hurricane season.  Different projects require different instrumentation, so when we switch from winter operations in places like Alaska or Canada, we have to spend considerable time and effort in accomplishing these changes. 

We are just about finished with all of this activity, and now the waiting begins.  In the meantime, the aircraft will fly some test and calibration flights, and the pilots will accomplish their mandatory annual training requirements.  From here on out, this blog will be all action.

Next:  Tropical Updates and Mission Plans